This Week in Bridge
(618) Fundamentals of Trick Taking – Finesse or Drop
© AiB Robert S. Todd
Level: 3 of 10 robert@advinbridge.com
General
As declarer, when we are missing an honor in a suit, then we have to decide how to try not to lose a trick to this honor. If we have all of the honors in a suit except for one, then we have a choice for how to avoid losing a trick to this card – take a finesse or play our honors from the top and hope the missing honors falls (we say “drops”). Let’s look at some common situations.
Missing the King
When we have all of the honors except the King, how should we play the suit?
Most of the time we when we are missing the King we take a finesse. The chance that the King is onside is roughly 50% and the chance that it falls is likely to be less. When our fit gets extremely large, this is when we consider playing for the drop.
Example 1 - 12-card fit
Dummy
♠ AQJT542
Declarer
♠ 98763
When we have a 12-card fit, then the only outstanding card is the ♠K. We should play the ♠A – the only missing card is the ♠K and we know that it will drop.
If we have an 11-card fit, then things become more difficult – a closer decision.
Example 2 - 11-card fit
Dummy
♥ AQJT54
Declarer
♥ 98763
If we lead up towards the dummy and LHO plays the ♥2, we have to guess if we should play the ♥A (playing for the drop) or play for the king to be online and finesse.
The math is slightly in favor of playing for the drop when we have a 11-card fit. With a 10-card or smaller, then the math is slightly in favor of taking the finesse.
Principle of Empty Space
When there is only one missing card it seems like there is an equal chance that it is in LHO’s hand or in RHO’s hand. But if we have seen more cards in one of the hands, then the missing card is likely to be in the other hand – the hand with more unknown cards or empty space.
Missing the Queen
What do we do when we have all of the honors except for the Queen?
Example 3 - 9-card fit
Dummy
♦ AJ543
Declarer
♦ K876
If we play the King and everyone follows, and then we lead up towards the dummy and LHO follows, then there is only one missing card. Having seen one more card from LHO, that makes the missing ♦Q slightly more likely to be in RHO’s hand.
With a smaller fit, we usually take the finesse. Thus, the guideline “8 ever, 9 never.”
Using Other Information
Of course, all of this information is in a vacuum. When we know a lot of information about the opponents’ hands we need to choose to overrule any guidelines or math that we learned before the auction began.
Shape
If we learn that one hand is filled with lots of cards in some suits (like when they preempt or use a two-suited bid like Michaels), then that does not leave them many cards in the other suit – and changes the odds of where the missing cards are likely to be.
Strength
We can also use information about HCP to help us making decisions about how to play a suit. If one opponent passes in the auction and then shows up with 10-11 HCP in the other suits, they cannot have the missing King or Queen - they would have opened the bidding if they had it. We should not take the finesse into their partner if we know they have the missing honor. Instead, we play for the drop, even if it was mathematically less likely. A small probability of a drop is still better than a 0% of a finesse working – when we know it is not working.
Conclusion
Avoiding losing a trick to a missing honor is an art form. We have some basic guidelines for finding an honor card, but as we get more information about the hand these guidelines become less and less effective. It is important to know when to follow the rules and when to break them. I give you permission to follow your instincts more, because making use of them is the only way to develop and refine them so you continue to improve your declarer play. Keeping working on it.